Thread: Results of swapo party electoral college: My analysis

By Phil ya Nangoloh, September 6 2009




1. In my preliminary analysis of the official results of the Swapo Party’s Electoral College this weekend, I will make the following observations: (1) that the proverbial Omusati clique has carried the day; (2) that the chicanery and other machinations by the Swapo Party Youth League and the National Union of Namibian Workers (NUNW) alliance has been totally rejected and, in fact, humiliated and sacrificed; (3) women have also prevailed somehow; (4) the Swapo Party has additionally been de-Ovambonized and this is good for Dr. Hage Geingob and Mme Pendukeni Iivula-Ithana; (5) the so-called Eastern Ovambos (i.e. the Ndongas and Kwanyamas as per the Windhoek Observer of last weekend) have lost out to the Western of Ovambos, which is the “Omusati clique” and; (6) the Old Guard prevailed somehow.

2. From the said results it appears as if there was a prior give-and-take-agreement between President Lucas Pohamba and former Namibian President Dr. Sam Nujoma (whom I regard as the de facto Namibian President) that “I will give you free reign on the Omusati clique provided you give an opportunity to get rid of the nagging Johnnies-Come-Lately, such as the Elijah Ngurares, Charles Siyauyas, Clinton Swartboois, Margaret Mensah-Williamses, Katrina Hanse-Himarwas, Armas Amukwiyus, Hennie Seibebs, Veikko Nekundis and Evilastus Kaarondas and the list goes on. These are virtually the same people the majority of whom attended the Ngurare wedding at Okatsiidhi village in the Omusati Region and who are also the same people who have been attacking President Pohamba and certain members of his Cabinet.

3. Hence, the following eleven (11) candidates or 20 percent of the 55 candidates, who have a better (not best) chance of making it to National Assembly and or Cabinet, are all from the Omusati Region: Pendukeni Iivula-Ithana (nr 2); Jerry Ekandjo (nr 4); Utoni Nujoma (nr 5); Abraham Iyambo (nr 7); Joel Kaapanda (nr 11); Peter Ilonga(16); Saara Kuugongelwa-Amadhila (nr 24) Erastus Uutoni (nr 31); Samwel Ankama (nr 37); Lempy Lucas (nr 45); and Isak Katali (nr 46). As I have said supra, they are all within 55-candidate bracket and hence they have the better chance of making to National Assembly and Cabinet come March 21 2010.

4. Please take note that these are only those who have ethnically originated from the Omusati Region. The list in Paragraph 3 above does not include those who are politically aligned to the so-called Omusati clique.

5. The second group to have barely made it is women. They are 16 in number or close to 31 percent of all the 55 candidates who have a better (not best) chance to make it to the National Assembly and or Cabinet, come March 21 2010. However, I believe that, due to the RDP-factor only 8 women or 14 percent among the first 35 candidates might eventually make it.

6. The predominance of the Oshiwambo-speaking people has also considerably been reduced. There are altogether 29 Oshiwambo speaking candidates, making up some 53 percent of the 55 candidates who have a better chance to make it to National Assembly and or Cabinet next year. The first de-Ovambonization took place during the October 3-4 2004 Electoral College, after former Namibian President introduced a major shift within the ruling party. The present situation is regarded as a bonanza for Dr. Hage Geingob as this improves his chances of becoming the first non-Ovambo Head of State after Pohamba’s second term expires in 2012.

7. The so-called Eastern Ovambos (i.e. the Ndongas and Kwanyamas as per the Windhoek Observer of last weekend) have also lost out to the Western of Ovambos which is the “Omusati clique”. They are 14 in number and make up a combined 25 percent of the total of 55 candidates. However, only 5 such candidates or 9 percent of the total of 55 hails from the Ohangwena Region.

8. Contrary to the wildest expectations of the Ngurares and Siyauyas, the Old Guard also prevailed somehow as the overwhelming majority of the concerned 55 candidates are members of the Old Guard. This is a humiliating defeat for the Ngurare-Siyauya strategy, which sought to replace the current Swapo Party leadership with the Johnnies-Come-Lately (a silly joke!) and or those who lack struggle credentials. These are also referred to in Paragraph 2, supra.

9. So, I told you so, have I not? Through my August 31 2009 response to the Ai-Ais accusations by Dr. Elijah Ngurare and other hotheads at the Swapo Party Youth League (SPYL) and the National Union of Namibian Workers (NUNW) I made inter alia this observation:

8.1. “As I have observed recently and I want to repeat that, to me, Dr. [Elijah] Ngurare is a nonentity who thinks too much of himself and who is a figurative [army] general without soldiers. Seen from a different angle, he is an unguided missile and a dreamer who wants to become the liberator of Swapo Party from Ovambo tribalism and who is hell-bent on ridding the Swapo Party of especially the Tanga group and install himself and his cronies.

8.2. He wants to rid the Swapo Party of everyone with struggle credentials and deliver the ruling party into his own hands and those of his fellow Johnnies-Come-Lately, such as the Clinton Swartboois, Margaret Mensah-Williamses, Katrina Hanse-Himarwas, Armas Amukwiyus, Hennie Seibebs, Veikko Nekundis, Evil Kaarondas and the list goes on. None of these people have the necessary struggle credentials to manage this country. Namibians would certainly not allow this country to fall into the hands of these hotheads. Once that happens, this country would be engulfed by even more serious divisions along tribal and ethnic lines: precisely the last thing this country deserves!

8.3. However, I am confident that the Tanganyika group will remain united and will show to Dr. Ngurare and his cronies at the Electoral College that expediency does not pay. They will be rejected at the Electoral College for sure as they clearly sense this defeat in their present statement.”

9. The list of the 55 candidates includes the 10 candidates who have been brought in by President Pohamba in a wheel barrow.

10. The above was my analysis. What is yours?