Thread: How will climate change affect Namibia?

The International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) published a report in November 2007 about how climate change will affect the contribution of Namibia’s natural resources to its economy. The report, written by Hannah Reid Linda Sahlén Jesper Stage James MacGregor concludes the following:

Executive sumary

Introduction

Climate change is likely to exacerbate the dry conditions already experienced in Southern Africa. And when rainfall does come, it is likely to be in bursts of greater intensity leading to erosion and flood damage. But these predictions gain little policy traction in Southern African countries. Research in Namibia suggests that over 20 years, annual loses to the Namibian economy could be up to 6 per cent of GDP due to the impact that climate change will have on its natural resources alone. This will affect the poor most, with resulting constraints on employment opportunities and declining wages, especially for unskilled labour. Namibia must take steps to ensure that all its policies and activities are ‘climate proofed’ and that it has a strategy to deal with displaced farmers and farmworkers. The need to mainstream climate change into policies and planning is clear, and it is the responsibility of industrialised nations, who have largely created the problem of climate change, to help Namibia and other vulnerable countries cope with climate change impacts and plan for a climate constrained future.

Vulnerability to climate change

It is becoming widely acknowledged that poor nations will suffer most from the effects of climate change. This vulnerability stems partly from their geographic location in areas such as drought-prone sub-Saharan Africa or flood-prone Bangladesh. Their capacity to cope with climate change is also lower than that of wealthier nations because of limited financial resources, skills and technologies and high levels of poverty. And they are heavily reliant on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and fishing. Namibia is very dependent on natural resources: some estimate that up to 30 per cent of its GDP is reliant on the environment.1

Ironically, it is also these poor nations who have contributed least to the problem of climate change. Data covering 1950 to 2000 from the Climate Analysis Indicators Tool, developed by the Washington DC-based World Resources Institute, indicates that African countries contributed 4.6 per cent of cumulative global carbon emissions during that period.2 Today their share of emissions is even lower, amounting to just 3.5 per cent of the total.3 Namibia was in fact estimated to be a net sink for carbon dioxide in 1994 due to the large uptake of CO2 by trees. Namibia contributed less than 0.05 per cent to global CO2 equivalent emissions in 1994, even when this carbon sink is excluded from calculations.4

Increasingly, countries are recognising the need to assess the likely impact of climate change on their desired development pathways, and take steps to ensure all policies and activities are ‘climate-proofed’. While climate change clearly must be mainstreamed into policies and planning, knowing how this will happen is less clear.

1 Lange, G-M. (2003) National Wealth, Natural Capital and Sustainable Development in Namibia. DEA research discussion paper 56 Ministry of Environment and Tourism. Windhoek, Namibia.2 World Resources Institute (2006). Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) Version 3.0. WRI, Washington DC. 3 MacGregor, J. (2006) Ecological Space and a Low-carbon Future: Crafting space for equitable economic development in Africa. Fresh Insights no. 8, DFID/IIED/NRI.4 Midgley, G. et al. (2005) Assessment of Potential Climate Change Impacts on Namibia’s Floristic Diversity, Ecosystem Structure and Function. South African National Botanical Institute, Cape Town.

The forecast for Namibia

Temperatures in Namibia have been increasing at three times the global mean temperature increases reported for the 20th century. The temperature rise predicted for 2100 ranges from 2 to 6°C. Particularly in the central regions, lower rainfall is expected, while overall rainfall is projected to become even more variable than it is now. Even if rainfall changes little from today’s levels, rises in temperature will boost evaporation rates, leading to severe water shortages. Poor rural pastoralist and dryland populations will be affected most. The frequency and intensity of extreme events such as droughts are likely to increase.

There may be less plant cover and productivity on grassland and savanna in response to relatively scant rainfall and more evaporation. Grassy savanna may also become less dominant as desertification occurs in some areas, and shrubs and trees benefit from higher levels of CO2 in others. Impacts on the marine environment are uncertain, but scenarios range from dramatic ecosystem responses that reduce their overall productivity to more intense coastal upwelling - the wind-driven movement of cooler, nutrient-rich water to the ocean surface - which would increase productivity.

Quantifying the impacts

Namibia’s advanced Natural Resource Accounts (NRA) helps to evaluate the contribution of the environment to national wealth by developing so-called ‘satellite’ accounts for natural assets such as fish, forests, wildlife, water and minerals. Data from the NRA can be fed into the conventional national economic accounts. This capability potentially allows for sound sustainable development planning that includes natural resources as well as man-made or owned assets - a clear advantage for policymakers in economies such as Namibia’s, which is so dependent on natural resources.

In NRA, natural assets are valued in two ways. First, the values of the total natural resource stocks are measured. These are treated as capital assets in the stock or asset account. Second, their annual contribution to national income in terms of direct use values is measured in the production or flow account. Changes in the capital stock from year to year are also reflected in the national income.

Data from the NRA was fed into a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which uses actual economic data to determine how economies respond to policy or other changes. This revealed that under a best-case scenario, agricultural impacts would be partly offset by improved water distribution, there would be no impact on fisheries and the overall GDP would fall by only about 1 per cent. Under a worst-case scenario, large-scale shifts in climate zones would reduce agricultural and fishing outputs, and the overall GDP would fall by almost 6 per cent over 20 years. However, this estimate constitutes only a fraction of possible climate change impacts because it considers only two economic sectors - agriculture and fisheries - and ignores impacts such as those on health, infrastructure and energy that relate less to natural resources and that other country studies have shown to be significant.

Namibian natural resource experts have further worked to quantify, as much as possible, the economic impacts of climate change on Namibia’s natural resource base. Estimates of how climate change will affect various sectors, and subsequent translation into economic impacts, can only be best guesses. Expert estimates suggest, however, that over 20 years, annual loses to the Namibian economy could be between 1 and 6 per cent of GDP - that is, between £35 million and £100 million - if no action is taken to adapt to climate change.


Who will be hit hardest?

Combining data from the NRA with Namibia’s Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) provides the chance to see who will be hit hardest by the impacts of climate change on the environment. The SAM is a database that provides information on activities in different economic sectors and helps identify the poverty status of different groups. Evidence from low-income countries around the world suggests that the people likely to be most affected by climate change are the poorest and most vulnerable. And in Namibia, results show that climate change impacts will hit the poor hardest, with employment opportunities constrained and a substantial decline in wages, especially for unskilled labour.

Even under the best-case scenarios generated by the CGE model, subsistence farming will fall sharply. In the worst-case scenario for agriculture, labour intensive livestock farming is hit hard, and while high-value irrigated crop production could thrive, employment creation in this area would be minimal. Thus, even under the best-case scenario, a quarter of the population will need to find new livelihoods. Displaced rural populations are likely to move to cities, which could cause incomes for unskilled labour to fall by 12 to 24 per cent in order to absorb the new workers. Income distribution in Namibia is already one of the most uneven in the world and this inequality is likely to increase. What this will do to social cohesion, if no counteracting policies are put in place, can only be imagined.

sjoe, der u hav de ansa, as from my side, I sense winter rain, is d@ even normal in de Nam?

Wonderful info! Thanks and so quick, too.

Namibia: Climate Change to Strongly Impact Agriculture

Brigitte Weidlich14 July 2009

RAINY seasons in Namibia will most likely become shorter but more intense, participants to a congress of the Agricultural Scientific Society of Namibia (Agrisson) were told.

The theme of the 13th congress was 'Climate change and food security challenges in sub-Saharan Africa - current agricultural innovations' and was held at Oshakati recently.


Marina Coetzee of the Ministry of Agriculture spoke on climate change and agriculture in Namibia and pointed out the threats of climate change to Namibian agriculture and possible solutions to adapt to these threats. According to most of the scenarios published so far, the temperature in Namibia will increase by 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius while rainfall intensity will probably increase as well.

"The duration of the rainy season will shrink so that rainfall events will become more intense, leading to more damage and soil erosion. Alarmingly, invader bush will probably benefit from the fertilising effect of increased atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (Co2) concentrations," Coetzee told the 70 participants. This emphasised the need to manage the country's natural rangelands more sustainably.

Professor Jack Elliot and Dr Michelle Glenn of Texas A&M University proposed partnerships with Namibian organisations to build linkages between research, teaching and outreach to provide new entrepreneurial strategies for farmers based on sustainable natural product development.

"The aim is to establish a centre of excellence in agricultural value chain education. With Agrisson they hope to co-host the 2011 conference of the Association for International Agricultural and Extension Education (AIAEE) in Windhoek, which is planned for July 2011 and we resolved to collaborate where able and appropriate," said Dr Axel Rothauge, Chairman of Agrisson.

In total 28, presentations were given on a wide variety of topics falling under categories of crop science, livestock and rangeland management, and natural resources management. Extended abstracts of these presentations on CD were given to each of the Congress participants and are available from the Editor Ibo Zimmermann (061-2072461), at N$50.

Agrisson prizes were awarded to agriculture students of Ogongo, Neudamm, Unam and the Polytechnic for their good performance and exemplary attitude. These students had been invited to Oshakati to participate in the Congress and their expenses were funded by Nored. Agriculture Minister John Mutorwa, who opened the congress, called on scientists to solve challenges facing all forms of life from threats such as climate change, through research.

Congress participants visited a nearby farm for a demonstration, by Gerhard Baufeld of Leather Connection, of the animal-drawn mahangu planter he designed. This planter had jointly won the design prize recently awarded by the Namibia Agronomic Board, because it featured a specially and precision-engineered planting drum mechanism that can expel sticky mahangu seed without damaging it and reducing its germination success.

Delegates further visited the Etunda near Ruacana, where about 600 hectares are under irrigation. Half the total area is commercially cropped by the contractor and the other half is farmed by 86 smallholders, who are serviced by the contractor. Climatic conditions favour a long harvesting season and an early start to the season, which gives Etunda a competitive advantage. Under the revised Green Scheme, greater control would be exercised over the farming carried out by the project's small-scale farmers to ensure their viability.

Agrisson also celebrated its 21st anniversary during the congress.

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